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ALROSA production outlook:

  • Production in 2022 may exceed 34 million carats (2021: 32.4 million carats).

  • The medium-term production outlook is 35–36 million carats.

  • The carat content of ore is expected to remain stable at about 1 carat per 1 ton of ore.

The long-term conditions for the diamond industry remain strong:

  • Preliminary estimates of diamond jewelry sales in 2021 exceed USD 90 billion, which is a record level. According to Bain estimates, in monetary terms, demand for diamond jewelry in the medium and long term will grow in line with the average GDP growth rate, or 2–3% per year.  

  • As of the beginning of 2022, product stocks in all segments of the diamond market are at minimum levels.

  • Since 2022, there has been an imbalance between supply and demand for diamonds: the sector is entering a prolonged period of shortage of rough diamonds.

  • The global supply of rough diamonds has shrunk structurally from 145–150 million carats in 2017–2018 to 110–120 million carats per year. Bain estimates that diamond production will not exceed 120 million carats over the next 5 years. The main reason for such a sharp decline is the natural depletion of existing deposits, which excludes the possibility of an active increase in future production.

Supply dropped structurally on depletions / lack of new mines
Source: Company data and analysis, Kimberley Process, AWDC Bain report “The Global Diamond Industry 2020-21”. Note: 1. Conservative scenario for rough diamond demand is based on 10% YoY change in 2021-23 and 1% in 2024-25.

Miners: Who is in and Who is out?

Depletions / reduction in output

$/ct - price per ct on depleting and suspended projects in 2020-25E1 vs 2019

$50 - Average Price of Depleted Diamonds

Source: Company data and analysis, brokers’ reports, Kimberley Process statistics. Notes: 1. Prices as of the latest available date. 2. Weighted average price. 3. Stands for De Beers Consolidated Mines, includes Venetia and Voorspoed mines.